Scientists use climate models to predict how climate will change in the future. These models are primarily validated with observational data, such as temperature, greenhouse gasses concentration in the atmosphere, collected with various measuring instruments over the past 170 years.
Unfortunately, we have no measurements taken deeper back in time, even though the climate was much more erratic back then: characterized by a mix of gradual changes and sudden, critical shifts. Especially if we look at the climate on Earth before humans evolved.
It is important to look at the past in order to understand how the climate might respond in the future. Studying historical climate patterns can provide valuable insights into the mechanisms driving these rapid changes. It could also helps us to refine our predictions and prepare for potential climatic shifts in the future.
Although we lack direct climate data from centuries ago, nature provides clues about past climate conditions. Over time, the climate left behind physical traces that scientists can analyze to learn about Earth’s climate history.
For example, tiny air bubbles in ancient Antarctic and Arctic ice sheets store information about past atmospheres. Fossilized plankton found in ocean sediments also serve as climate archives, called paleo data.
By examining their chemical makeup, scientists can infer past temperatures and greenhouse gas levels. These natural records help reconstruct the environmental conditions when the organisms were alive.
“Paleo data are not yet fully integrated into existing climate models,” says Anna von der Heydt, Associate Professor of physical oceanography and project coordinator. “Typically, climate scenarios are constructed using observational data, with paleo data added only afterwards. Our goal is to develop a method that incorporates paleo data directly into the model development from the start. This approach will ultimately lead to a more accurate picture of future climate changes.”
Von der Heydt finds it remarkable that experts from different scientific disciplines are coming together for this project. “This kind of collaboration doesn’t happen automatically, but it’s incredibly valuable,” she claims. “We have to learn to speak each other’s language, which leads to fascinating discussions.”
One major challenge is making paleo data more accessible for climate models. “In geosciences, there’s a wealth of data, but it often comes from too specific locations,” Von der Heydt says. “For climate models, however, we need data that reveals patterns across entire regions and over extended time periods.”
Another noteworthy collaboration within the project is with archaeologists. “Their research reveals how people lived in the past, and we want to see how they responded to sudden changes in the climate. We are also interested in what these archeological findings reveal about past climate conditions”, Von der Heydt explains.
Lucas Lourens, Paleoclimatology Professor and project lead, stresses the urgency and value of this research. “We increasingly see climate change effects. Although we understand much, the speed of current changes raises questions. So, we focus on feedback mechanisms—climate-driven processes that accelerate change.
Understanding them over long timescales helps explain short-term changes, too,” says Lourens.
Partners: Utrecht University, University of Copenhagen, Technical University of Munich, University of Leicester, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, University of Leeds, Complutense University of Madrid, University of Bristol, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, University of Durham, University of Exeter, Alfred Wegener Institute, Cardiff University, University of Louvain, Max Planck Society, Met Office, Consortium of European Taxonomic Facilities, United Kingdom Research and Innovation, University of Groningen, Spanish National Research Council, Senckenberg Society for Nature Research
Associated partners: University of Bern, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, University of Adelaide.
